Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses is considered to be one of the most efficient hypothesis proving methods that provides unbiased results. However, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses can be biased at its initial stages making the whole process of analysis take the wrong direction, which can be possibly overcome by means of engaging more analysts in it.
The method of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) in an eight-step procedure that aims at finding the most probable hypothesis among their set by disclaiming those that are the least consistent with the evidence. The main advantage of ACH is that it allows to process several hypotheses simultaneously and provide quite objective results. Some of the disadvantages of the method arise at the preliminary step of the research on the issue and forming the primary hypotheses because the analyst may not consider some considerable data that would lead to the wrong results. As the scientists suggest, “humans systematically make substantive errors in reasoning due to problems of framing, resistance of mental models to change, risk aversion, limitations of short-term memory, and other cognitive and perceptual biases”. Therefore, the technique of processing the data itself is rather advantageous but the human factor makes it vulnerable to errors at forming the primary hypotheses.
The possible solution to overcome bias of the method can be the involvement of the more analysts at the initial steps of ACH. In order to eliminate the risk of uncomprehensive coverage of the topic and forming the wrong or on the full set of the primary hypotheses that construct the bias and may lead to false conclusions a larger number of the specialists, with the diverse perspectives and ideas concerning the issue should be involved in the process of the initial research on the issue and forming the primary hypotheses. This would partially reduce the risk of the analysis to take the wrong direction.
In conclusion, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses is an efficient method of the data processing, which provides the reliable results but can be biased at the steps of the initial research and forming the primary hypotheses that possibly can be overcome by engaging more analysts at these stages of the analysis.
Bibliography
Heuer, Richards J. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. 2007. Accessed January 11, 2017. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis
Pope, Simon and Jøsang, Audun. Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses Using Subjective Logic, 2005, accessed January 10, 2017, …
