Predictive Methods
Predictive Analysis that is expressed in the Delphi Method would be more effective at forecasting the situation. The Delphi Method is based on the prediction or estimation and is based also on the “experts” asking about the future. This central assumption may offer the collective judgment as well as the wisdom of a few experts that better estimate the predictions of different experts. The method of Delphi is transmitted as a part of a mail survey. If to follow the normal procedures for a construct of different survey questions, the researcher should ensure that the question can provide operational measures of different concepts that they were trying to predict or estimate[1].
Such technique was used in the technological forecasting. That could also be used in different problem-solving types and situations for that there were no answers, only varying options[2]. The main advantage of such a technique was that it permits the analysts to have a consensus objective of the expert judgment. The other advantage of such a technique is that it can make the underlying rationale a specific estimate or prediction to be
explicit for each person. This technique weakness is that the truly perspicacious judgments of experts could be lost when a consensus may represent a judgment range that was produced. In different situations, one expert could be swayed by the rhetoric than by another expert’s argument on the validity[3]. The potential for such a problem may exist whenever the humans are interacting and it is not necessarily that the Delphi weakness
was per se. When administering this technique anonymously and remotely will be one way for reducing of the “rhetorical intimidation”[4].
In the process of Delphi, the analysis of data may involve qualitative and quantitative data as well. Investigations provided should deal with the quantitative classic data studies that use questions that are open-ended.
Bibliography
Abold J.L., Guidetti R., Keyer D. “Strengthening the Value of the National Network of Fusion Centers by Leveraging Specialization: Defining “Centers of Analytical Excellence”, Homeland Security Affairs, Volume
8, Article 7 (2012).
“Defense Science Board Task Force on The Role and Status of DoD Red Teaming Activities” Defense Science Board (DSB), 2015.
“The Delphi Technique: Making Sense Of Consensus Chia-Chien Hsu”, The Ohio State University & Brian A. Sandford, Oklahoma State University, (2007).
Marsella N.R., Red Teaming And The Intelligence Professional: The Environment And The Challenge, Military Intelligence, 2008.
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