The Outlook for Arab Gulf Cooperation Article Outlook
Although the political tension and disputes in the region are temporarily halted, the new decade may increase the concerns over contentious issues. One of the recent topical issues was cooperation with MB. In spite of numerous political disputes, the countries came to an agreement and settled in favor of the anti-MB camp. Nevertheless, the cooperation with MB might eventually be considered as an opportunity to ensure stability in Egypt, and the UAE’s rigid position against Islamist organization can isolate it from the group.
The unity of GCC might weaken, as the alliance is currently asymmetrical and its members have different opinions on the expansion of the union. However, it is difficult to predict the situation because of the upcoming leadership change. Considering the age of the leaders, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia are about to face succession. Despite this relatively abrupt political change, the succession can result in the unification of the region under the right conditions. Political outlook of the successors will be different from the outlook of the current leaders. Regardless of the political strategy, the change of leadership will be a cause of new political reforms in the region.
The growth of expatriate communities is another complicating factor, which can slow the development of khaleeji identity. Unlike to the majority of Western countries, the GCC members have not adopted policies that would allow expatriate workers to acquire labor rights or residence status. As far as the identity politics is evolving, khaleeji identity could boost institutional development of the region. However, Oman is culturally distinct from the other states, as the government invests less in institutional development. Oman also has a different political stance on Iran. These factors may cause withdrawing or even expulsion of Oman from GCC. The shifting political pattern requires reformations in order to facilitate cohesion among the states. Moreover, taking into account the close relationship among the royal families, no other states should meddle in the succession process.
Opinion on the Subject
This article is concise and very informative at the same time, as it covers many aspects and predictions on the future policy direction in GCC. The political outlook for the GCC is a complex issue, as it depends on many internal and foreign political factors.
I agree that the tension between the countries is likely to increase. One of the most contentious issues is cooperation with MB. Despite the UAE’s opinion concerning MB, I think that other states are likely to take a more favorable stance on this organization. The asymmetrical political pattern in the union can also result in the increase of disputes. In its turn, I also find the increase of expatriate communities to be the most topical internal problem. Nevertheless, it is improbable for the states to implement policies that would provide labor rights or residence status to the emigrants.
The states should implement reforms and come to a consensus regarding some of the contentious issues. The need …
